Analysis of the OBL tape…
UPDATE: Hmmm not as much to analyse as I thought because I don’t think the tape was meant to come out now, but earlier and so it is situation specific to a time frame no longer current. Nonetheless, I think it shows there is concern about Obama’s outreach to the Middle East within al Qaeda or at least by bin Laden. He does not like anyone messing with his agenda as multiple mujahideen memoirs show.
As I said earlier this isn’t an anniversary tape and was probably meant as a counter response to Obama’s Cairo speech. He’s just trying to do the same thing back to America. Ever the copy cat Mr Bin Laden! But for some reason it got relegated to 911 anniversary fill in spot (see my earlier posts about that). So I don’t think too much can be read into the Israel dominated nature of the speech given that it was in response to Obama’s speech, which was, in its recognition of the Palestinian right to a state, somewhat threatening to al Qaeda (but that it also needed/wanted to feed off for its own purposes). So that’s that. Back to breakfast reading.
UPDATE TWO: On second thoughts this might have also been a way of re-orientating the focus away from the takfir elements, which while certainly existing within al Qaeda, don’t sell too well outside of those already inculculated to that way of thinking. Taking it back to Palestine is a well worn path for bin Laden. It is something he thinks people will rally around. And in this way Obama talking about the issue made him probably want to go back with an adress of his own to leverage off the publicity. OBL does like to pretend he is of the same stature. Remember the 04 desk speech with his favourite outfit. (I wonder if he still has it?) And I guess being the devils advocate here, given that he single handled managed to bring down the standing pillars of international relations and cause it to be re-orientated around something as intangible as the Global War on Terrorism does give him some stature. Really back to breakfast reading now.