Bin Laden claims plane bombing bid – some quick thoughts
Just a quick one
a. Entirely not surprised by this.
b. Interesting that this tape went straight to Al Jazeera instead of the forums. Sahaab is so going down the toilet. Also the time frames for this are interesting. There has definitely been a bifurcation of distribution networks in Sahaab, which corresponds to different levels of access to senior leadership.
c. Wondering if the forums had prior notice. Several of them went down this afternoon for ‘maintenance’ .
d. He’s staying totally on his own message, which is pretty much at odds with a lot of what other senior members are saying –especially viz linking it consistently back to the Palestinian issue. Again access and Sahaab could have a lot to do with this. Bin Laden is however, probably also very cognizant of popular hatred against al Qaeda’s attacks in Muslim countries. Palestine has always been the issue he uses to try to regain the initiative and recalibrate public opinion and opinion within the militant salafist milieu.
e. In terms of what he’s doing. It’s pretty damn clear that by taking credit for this (even if AQ HQ didn’t authorise -which I strongly suspect it did given doctrinal requirements for operating outside of its usual theatre of operations) he is trying to force Obama more onto the war footing. Keep the jihad going. As I have said many times.
f. Re: more attacks coming. Well that’s anyone’s guess. But if AQ HQ has anything to do with it that is what they will want and encourage. Million dollar question, is, as always, capacity to pull off more attacks. Transportation and public spaces will be the areas of focus.